Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 3.977959 4.711268 5.524722 6.491554 7.606794 8.850208 10.338770
2025-06-15 2.947008 3.952207 5.191793 6.820948 8.892353 11.423533 14.734216
2025-06-22 2.201658 3.289304 4.757916 6.857840 9.749766 13.553641 18.888697
2025-06-29 1.700794 2.795767 4.396234 6.856311 10.479902 15.545807 23.067255
2025-07-06 1.345014 2.411309 4.084794 6.826758 11.108726 17.416142 27.243300
2025-07-13 1.202708 2.320183 4.181526 7.396257 12.661146 20.749151 33.843287
2025-07-20 1.033021 2.139967 4.092483 7.637893 13.709860 23.409360 39.677697
2025-07-27 0.905796 2.005062 4.049259 7.934638 14.862730 26.323015 46.156747
2025-08-03 0.765779 1.812363 3.864166 7.944168 15.512202 28.462253 51.561097
2025-08-10 0.621561 1.576380 3.552389 7.665701 15.603711 29.652064 55.468024
2025-08-17 0.496484 1.350701 3.217348 7.283876 15.443419 30.366123 58.592142
2025-08-24 0.418925 1.215255 3.043348 7.191741 15.808703 32.030878 63.500350
2025-08-31 0.351944 1.091438 2.877537 7.102923 16.192430 33.808656 68.855076
2025-09-07 0.324116 1.063297 2.926037 7.487194 17.584927 37.624176 78.314325
2025-09-14 0.281160 0.981895 2.832317 7.537130 18.282374 40.157648 85.559703
2025-09-21 0.242439 0.901667 2.725634 7.538981 18.872955 42.527331 92.675218
2025-09-28 0.208299 0.825226 2.613255 7.508064 19.383299 44.773176 99.716748
2025-10-05 0.203075 0.841712 2.754629 8.128322 21.440563 50.385053 113.917820
2025-10-12 0.185332 0.810407 2.756638 8.391352 22.692941 54.398220 125.139719
2025-10-19 0.171232 0.788018 2.780231 8.714122 24.120575 58.897942 137.680659
2025-10-26 0.150035 0.732251 2.693169 8.724507 24.788550 61.790903 147.044130
2025-11-02 0.124358 0.649456 2.504542 8.421691 24.640061 62.851802 152.564897
2025-11-09 0.100572 0.564748 2.289777 8.006309 24.150125 63.087198 156.295416